Fabian asks for a deeper perspective on AGI over the next 10 years.
I expect significant job displacement from AI, but I doubt AI will replace human capital on the global scale predicted by Elon Musk and others, especially given regulatory barriers in banking that would block high-impact AI decisions without human oversight. While tools like Fable and Astra make tasks easier and faster, they still make mistakes and require human judgment. Regarding AGI's trajectory, many claim finance regulations block AI from high-impact decisions, yet AI already drives lethal decisions—governments, militaries, autonomous drone swarms, and military strategy—without human oversight. If that genie is out of the bottle, few others remain contained. I believe virtually all major company CEOs now make major decisions with AI's impact, either through discussion or by asking what to do next.
People often say things like, 'Hey, I'm in high finance and the regulatory legislation in that industry would be a massive barrier to AI ever being allowed to make high impact decisions.' But they don't understand that AI is already used constantly in the making of high impact decisions, lethal decisions. AI has run multiple governments, militaries, autonomous drone swarms, and even military strategic decisions for at least a year and a half. We're seeing a lot of quote-unquote leaks from Anthropic and other companies suggesting that many governments around the world have woven in AI to do things like target identification, target elimination, autonomous, unmanned aerial attacks and so on. That's really just the start. So your question on high impact decisions without human oversight: what is higher impact than killing another human being? That is already being done without human oversight. And so if that genie is out of the bottle, then what other genies cannot go out of the bottle really? I think if you look across the board, virtually all major company CEOs, all major decisions are now being made with the impact of AI either through some sort of discussion or through outright 'what should I do next?' And then the AI makes the decision. This has led to some pretty crazy outcomes, and I think some people are kind of AI psychoso as we've seen on Twitter. Um, and maybe that's not always the best thing to do, but you would be naive to believe that we are not already willingly replacing ourselves in the name of slightly higher margins or slightly more efficiency. Even if that is a short-lived boost in efficiency and maybe loses the plot long term, people are doing it all over the place. With AI getting more and more capable, it's only a matter of time before we do it across the board. So, the very legislators themselves are going to be using AI to decide whether or not they should legislate these sorts of AI decisions. They're doing it all over the world.
Nick believes there will always be a place for people, even if AI surpasses us economically, because humans offer value beyond economics—like bravery, wit, humor, and other virtues. He points to Magnus Carlsen, who remains highly paid and followed despite AI being stronger at chess for decades, because people resonate with his humanity, not just his skill. He argues that people don’t follow AI simply because it’s better at chess; they connect with other humans.
I didn't say the AI gold rush would die in a few months; it's a transformation of capital from payroll to cloud‑based machines, with money flowing to infrastructure providers like OpenAI. As a service provider, you can help implement that shift. Realistically, it will take years before it no longer makes sense to pursue this work. I have read the AI 2027 paper, and the reality is there's no guarantee entrepreneurs won't be replaced—machines can do knowledge work thousands of times faster and better, and that gap is widening. Nothing humans do is economically sacred; eventually AI could take over. In the midterm, focus on business skills that let you create value in this transition and get comfortable acting with uncertainty, because AI can't yet take real‑world action. Your ability to act is the edge you have.
That's a great question. Imagine accountants, flight coordinators, or any role being replaced by AI that can do the work better and cheaper. Who knows exactly when that will happen, but the good news is that running your own business gives you insulation - you control where you go, how you move, and how to stay indispensable. In reality, every role faces the same pressure. The world will look very different in 5-10 years, but our specific business model still has at least three years of runway to capitalize on. In fact, our services will be needed to build that AI-driven future, so there's hardly a better industry to be in.