How should I decide what to guarantee for my performance system—behavior, output, money—and how would you present it as an offer?
Nick says it’s difficult to guarantee outcomes you don’t directly control. In Maker School he guarantees a first client or a refund, which is downstream of his control but still offered. He notes that in practice, money is the strongest guarantee because it’s simple and quantifiable; you can offer a money‑back guarantee even without direct control, as the program’s overall value is evident—participants often find it valuable and may have a pipeline of leads even if they don’t land a client. He shares that his refund rate is very low because participants interact with him daily for 90 days. He appreciates the question, noting that most sellers focus on agents rather than outcomes, and thanks for the AI comment reframe. Regarding school growth boost, he says he would enable the feature, estimating it brings about 20‑30 % of net new people, so letting the platform take a cut is fine because you still grow your top line; he doesn’t know the exact percentage but sees it as acceptable.
I always do. A guarantee isn't just promising I'll do X; it's not promising I'll make you $50,000. In offer terms, a guarantee is: I guarantee you I'll make you $50,000, or I'll give you all your money back and then give you a $250 gift card to the restaurant of your choice. That's what I consider a guarantee. Many people worry when they start a new industry and someone like me says you should guarantee stuff, thinking they can't guarantee because they're not good at it. The reality is, if you don't have a guarantee in your offer, you're leaving about three times the top of the funnel on the table, according to my math, maybe more, at the cost of maybe 5% of your margin, because your refund rate will be much lower than you think. Assuming a 5% refund rate, mathematically you get 3x top line for a 5% reduction in bottom line. Doing the math, that's 285% of the money you'd otherwise make without a guarantee. Meaning it's illogical not to include a guarantee. I also think guarantees make you work harder from a motivational perspective. If you compare two universes—one where you offer a guarantee to a customer and one where you don't—you'll work harder in the universe with the guarantee, because you're personally incentivized to perform. So there's really no reason not to do a guarantee; it's better for you and better for the client, who gets better results. It is immoral not to guarantee your services—that's my takeaway.
It's a great question. Think of two universes: one with no guarantee, one with a guarantee. With no guarantee, conversion is lower. With a guarantee—e.g., 100% guarantee of 2X ROI, money back plus a $100 gift card—conversion is much higher. Beyond conversion, guarantees increase the probability of success because they align incentives: if you don’t deliver the promised result, you don’t get paid and must refund, so you work harder to fulfill it. Psychologically, you’re more likely to achieve what you’ve guaranteed. Examples like Alex Rosi’s crazy guarantees (pay double if you don’t make X money) show how compelling they are. Even at the start of any business, lead generation is the bottleneck; improving conversion via guarantees gives you a higher chance of success and provides free experience (you still deliver value even if you refund). Logically, morally, ethically, guarantees are the way to go. They let you hedge bets without being reckless—offering a guarantee implicitly acknowledges a chance of failure and promises restitution. I used to avoid guarantees, but after adopting them my income jumped from $2K to $20K a month. My advice: make offering guarantees a habit.
If someone asks for a refund under Maker School’s 90‑day policy—whether they claim they made no money or not—I simply give them their money back. Honestly, most people who request refunds are those who probably weren’t going to succeed anyway. You can often tell by looking at their post history: if they’ve never even introduced themselves in the community, it’s clear they’re not interested in taking full advantage of what Maker School offers. The real value of Maker School lies in the relationships and network you build. When you make an introduction, you instantly connect with people who are building agencies earning $5 k–$10 k per month, as well as beginners, veterans, and folks across every experience level. The community spans almost every continent (except Antarctica) and is present in major population centers worldwide. Those who ask for a refund usually lack the willingness to put themselves out there, held back by limiting beliefs, and that’s why I don’t hesitate to refund them. My actual refund rate is about 2‑5 % month‑to‑month, rising to roughly 6 % during big sales because many people join excitedly without thinking it through. While that’s a regret of running large promotions, it also brings in significant revenue, so I continue to run those big sales.
I can't truly guarantee growth, but I can offer a full money-back guarantee as risk mitigation. You can't guarantee growth because you don't have a crystal ball; you can only express high confidence based on probability. The best approach is to always have some risk mitigation, like a refund policy, rather than promising guaranteed growth.