#241 · the highest-ROI skill to learn before AGI

youtube ↗AI & Automation

What are your thoughts on running AI agents and local models? What happened with Fable could happen to any model — big companies with money can just buy hardware, but how does a regular person or someone just starting out in AI protect themselves if a model they depend on for client work suddenly becomes unavailable?

You want to wrestle a little control back from the big monolithic AI companies, and I can help with that. There are two kinds of improvement happening right now: hardware (massive data centers letting labs train bigger, and per the bitter lesson, generally smarter, models) and software/algorithmic improvements (inference optimizations, quantization, and other hacks that let you run faster or smaller models at similar intelligence). The hardware path isn't very accessible if you're not capital-rich — big models just cost more to run and labs will charge accordingly. But the algorithmic path doesn't require massive hardware. China, rate-limited on compute compared to the US's roughly 50-100x compute advantage, has poured its effort into this path — models like GLM 5.2 and Kimi K2 have gotten almost an order of magnitude more efficient purely from software optimization. As a result, you can run a model like GLM 5.2 locally right now, 1-bit quantized, on a MacBook with 256GB of memory. It's not unreasonable to expect that within about 6 months we'll be running something similar (or a bit dumber) on our phones. So while the fear of big model companies taking over is understandable, it seems very likely everyone will soon be able to run models much smarter than what we have today on compute as modest as a phone — you won't get the frontier models doing galaxy-scale planning, but you'll have genuinely capable local assistants you don't depend on any one company for.

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Related answers

youtube ↗AI & Automation

How can someone just starting out earn money in the AI space run AI agents and local models, given that big companies have the resources?

I understand the concern about big model companies dominating, but there are two main types of improvements happening right now: hardware and software algorithmic improvements. Hardware advances mean larger server clusters and compute resources, which let companies train bigger models faster. Software improvements—quantization, inference hacks, and other algorithmic tricks—make models run faster and smaller. Because of these algorithmic gains, especially from teams that lack massive capital, we can run efficient models locally. For example, the Chinese models like GLM 5.2 are highly optimized and can be run on a consumer laptop: a 1‑bit quantized version runs on a MacBook with 256 GB of RAM. In the next six months we’ll likely be able to run comparable models on phones. So the fear of being locked out is overstated. The simplest way to get started is to download Ollama, a platform that lets you run open‑source models locally. You can pull models such as Ornith, GLM 5.2, or Kimmy K 2.7‑code, and many community members provide quantized versions that run on modest hardware. Even if a model is too large, you can pay a few dollars for a hosted service to help set it up, and you’ll be fine.

local modelsollamaai agentsdemocratization
youtube ↗AI & Automation

Can AI models create highly technical, personalized solutions for institutional clients, such as integrating into a firm’s tech stack?

I’m not an expert in crypto, but models will fail a lot—about 70% of the time. The goal isn’t to prevent failures but to make them happen quickly so we can learn. Models are highly parallelizable; you can spin up dozens, test many approaches, discard what doesn’t work, and feed the results into the next model. By iterating fast, you eventually get a solution that works for complex, technical use cases.

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youtube ↗AI & Automation

Should I experiment with AI if I can't afford front-tier models?

Absolutely. AI intelligence has been decreasing in cost with virtually every new model drop; models are released almost daily and now compete on cost per task or token rather than intelligence. Soon you'll be able to run all these models locally on your computer as long as you have one, which is the entry ticket for everyone, so you'll be fine. It's worth building the skills now for when that time arrives.

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youtube ↗Niches

What do you think of high-ticket offers around local AI deployments for companies that want to own their AI layer for privacy — fine-tuning and deploying on their own cloud, or smaller assistants fine-tuned for their workflows? How would you go about getting these deals?

Local AI deployments for companies afraid of giving their information to the big LLM companies like OpenAI or Anthropic are a quickly emerging niche. A lot of companies are shifting to Chinese open-source models that are quantized and fast enough to run on local infrastructure while still being good enough for knowledge work. So I think it's a good niche. The problem is you'll probably find that the people thinking that many steps ahead are already technically endowed enough not to need your services. You could probably do it as a consultant, but as a repeatable, reliable, recurring service it doesn't seem super viable right now. Most companies that even realize they need this kind of strategic shift will likely want to do it in-house, because if they're that privacy and compliance minded, they're probably big enough to have hired people in compliance and privacy. It could work, and I might be wrong, but it'd probably be pretty tough to scale unless you become known as the local AI guy, which would almost certainly come through some kind of inbound brand. And if you already have an inbound brand capable of generating customers like multi-billion-dollar enterprises, you might as well sell other things, because it'll probably make you more money.

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